UPDATED September 1 Oscar predictions

It's about that time again.  In the weeks since my initial, first of the year predictions, not all that much has changed but a few hits and misses have been identified.  In particular, Tate Taylor's racial drama The Help was helped by decent reviews and a surprisingly stellar box office.  Given the Academy's "feel good" nature of late, this is the first certified Best Picture nominee of the year, and with it the one-two performances of Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer (however, the category whereabouts of Miss Davis has yet to be identified, but many are speculating Lead, though this type of role typically lands a win in Supporting).

Others interesting notes, Roman Polanski's Carnage, George Clooney's political drama The Ides of March, and David Cronenberg's S&M-laced A Dangerous Method have made an interesting splash at the Venice Film Festival, but none have registered quite the level of enthusiasm granted towards Black Swan last year.  In the meantime, I've personally begun to turn more speculative towards Clint Eastwood's too-good-to-be-true J. Edgar.  Clint hasn't been hitting on all cylinders since he made a surprise splash into the 2006 Best Picture race with Letters from Iwo Jima.  That is one I'll wait for the payoff to predict.  Techs coming soon.

BEST PICTURE

The Artist

*The Descendants

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help

The Ides of March
*J. Edgar

Midnight in Paris

*My Week with Marilyn

Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy
War Horse
(* indicates those I'm predicting only in an overflow capacity)

BEST DIRECTOR

Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
David Cronenberg, A Dangerous Method

Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris

Steven Spielberg, War Horse
(Eastwood out, Allen in)

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

George Clooney, The Descendants

Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar

Jean DuJardin, The Artist

Michael Fassbender, A Dangerous Method

Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
(Unchanged)

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Viola Davis, The Help

Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene

Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
(Felicity Jones out, David in)

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn

Albert Brooks, Drive

Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method

Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Christoph Waltz, Carnage
(Seymour Hoffman out, Waltz in)

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Zoe Caldwell, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
Octavia Spencer, The Help

Marisa Tomei, The Ides of March

Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
(Tomei out, Spencer in; Redgrave new projected winner)

"The Artist" trailer arrives

This monumental hit at Cannes this year has finally been given a trailer.  After the poster landed a few days ago, we've been blessed with moving images from this silent picture.  The Weinstein Company is distributing this film, which means it will likely be a huge player come Oscar season.  I'm currently predicting it for Best Picture, Michel Hazanavicius for Best Director, and Jean Dujardin for Best Actor.  I've never experienced something like this in the Oscar race before, so it'll be interesting to see how a Buzzed-About throwback film fares.  Thoughts?


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Roman Polanski's a god of "Carnage"

Below, we have the trailer for the highly-anticipated and Venice Film Festival opener Carnage.  Based of a ridiculously successful stage play, Roman Polanski's adaptation stars a trio of Oscar-winners and one lone nominee.  Waltz and Winslet in particular look marvelous, with Waltz perfectly capturing the attitude I always imaged when reading the play.  It's still a mystery how this will play in this year's forthcoming Oscar race, but it sure is looking strong.  (Please mind it's enormity, overrunning the posting space).



And the poster, for good measure.

[trailer and poster via Twitch] 

Posters for A Dangerous Method, The Artist, and My Week with Marilyn

Three of my most eagerly-anticipated awards seasons releases have new posters.  One I adore, another I enjoy, and the final leaves something to be desired.  Either way, I'm sure we're looking at the mug of at least 5 future Oscar nominees.

Below, David Cronenberg's A Dangerous Method, staring Keira Knightley, Viggo Mortensen, and Michael Fassbender.

Below, Michel Hazanavicius' ode to silent films, The Artist, staring John Goodman and Jean Dujardin.

Below, Simon Curtis' much-talked-about film about Marilyn Monroe, aptly titled My Week with Marilyn.  Staring Michelle Williams as the title character, Kenneth Branagh as Sir Laurence Olivier, and Judi Dench as Dame Sybil Thorndike.

"I Think We're Back in Business"

(right around 2:03)

After much ado in my personal life the last month and a half (a wedding, a 2 week honeymoon, working constantly, and studying for the LSAT) I've finally found some time in my schedule to return to my blog.  My postings may be sporadic in the near future (at least until October 1), but they'll exist nevertheless.

Oh, and I'm painfully behind on a lot of new releases, but that's what cheapy second-run movie theatres and Redbox are for.  Regardless, I'm glad to be back.

Hiatus

Tomorrow, I will be marrying the love of my life and for the next two weeks soaking up some well-deserved sun on my honeymoon. So, needless to say, no posts until our return.

Reviews of The Tree of Life and Harry Potter in the Deathly Hallows - Part 2, and Emmy nominee reactions, along with some fun film conversations.

Adios!

'The Dark Knight Rises' teaser poster

As per usual, Christopher Nolan begins the promotions for his films a full year ahead of time.  His follow-up to The Dark Knight, aptly titled The Dark Knight Rises is set for a July 2012 release, and rumor has it that the teaser trailer is set to premier in front of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 this weekend.  I like the poster; it's not the blurry "Why So Serious?" genius of The Dark Knight's teaser, but it's visually stunning and has the sense of a whole city collapsing.

What do you think?

Michelle Williams as Marilyn Monroe

The newest picture of Dawson's Creek alum and two-time Oscar nominee Michelle Williams as the famous blonde bombshell Marilyn Monroe from her upcoming Oscar-hopeful My Week With Marilyn.  Myself, and many other Oscar pundits are predicting Williams to nab a nomination for her work in this picture.

My Week with Marilyn also stars Tony-winner Eddie Redmayne, Emma Watson, Kenneth Branagh as Sir Laurence Olivier, Julia Ormond as Vivien Leigh, and Judi Dench as Dame Sybil Thorndike.

[Photo courtesy of Napier News and The Weinstein Company. ]

Spielberg's full-length trailer to 'Tintin' hits

The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn has been Steven Spielberg's much-anticipated companion piece to his more dramatic War Horse, both coming out this this year.  Much as been said regarding Spielberg's penchant for a "one for the critics, one more the masses" years, being it 1993 with Jurassic Park and Schindler's List, or 2005's War of the Worlds and Munich.  The new international trailer, below.

However, this particular film, produced by Spielberg, Peter Jackson, and long-time Spielberg backer Kathleen Kennedy, is a combination of motion capture and rendering animation.  Though there has been no official word as to whether this film will be ruled as eligible for Best Animated Feature or not, this film will surely be a contender should the animation branch deem it eligible.  The question is whether this film is strictly motion capture, or if it's motion capture with extensive animated rendering.  One makes it eligible, and the other doesn't. Should it be eligible, Spielberg could be looking at one impressive year.

[Thanks to Napier's News and @nathandonarum for the links]

July Oscar Predictions

Okay, so I'm new at this official Oscar prediction thing. Before this, I would just haphazardly post my predictions in a forum post and call it a day. But now I'm going to do it monthly like most of my colleagues and sooner to Oscar season, weekly. If not daily.

Check out other notable predictors from my fellow bloggers: Nathaniel R. at The Film Experience, Kris Tapley at InContention, and Julian Stark at Movies and Other Things.

Individual categories clickable in the above tabs.  All listed in alphabetical order.

BEST PICTURE

The Artist

The Descendants

A Dangerous Method

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

The Ides of March

The Iron Lady

J. Edgar

Midnight in Paris

My Week with Marilyn

Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy

BEST DIRECTOR

David Cronenberg, A Dangerous Method

Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Clint Eastwood, J. Edgar

Michel Haznavicius, The Artist

Steven Spielberg, War Horse

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

George Clooney, The Descendants

Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar

Jean DuJardin, The Artist

Michael Fassbender, A Dangerous Method

Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Felicity Jones, Like Crazy

Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene

Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn

Albert Brooks, Drive

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Ides of March

Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method

Christopher Plummer, Beginners

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Zoe Caldwell, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method

Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus

Marisa Tomei, The Ides of March

Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

Techs and screenplay races coming soon.

The Dwarves of 'The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey' Emerge

A few images from Peter Jackson's upcoming The Hobbit films were released a few weeks ago, and I covered their new title revamping and release dates.  But now, we get a glimpse not of Bilbo or Gandalf, but rather of, according to the films' Facebook page, the dwarves Dori, Nori, and Ori.  More from the picture, after the picture.

JED BROPHY as Nori, ADAM BROWN as Ori and MARK HADLOW as Dori in New Line Cinema’s and MGM's fantasy adventure THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY, a Warner Bros. Pictures release. Photo by James Fisher.

DORI, NORI & ORI
These three brothers, all sons of the same mother, could not be more different from each other. Dori, the oldest, spends much of his time watching out for Ori, the youngest; making sure he’s not caught a chill or got himself killed by Wargs or Goblins. Nobody quite knows what Nori gets up to most of the time, except that it’s guaranteed to be dodgy and quite probably, illegal. Dori, Nori and Ori are intensely loyal to each other – and whilst they are perfectly happy fighting amongst themselves, woe-betide anyone who means harm to one of these brothers.

[Via The Hobbit's Facebook page]

Teaser trailer for Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady

Much Oscar buzz has been floating around Meryl Streep and her upcoming performance as Margret Thatcher in The Iron Lady.  Many think the Oscar phenom is on her way to breaking her own nomination record with her 17th nomination.  Could this finally be her long-awaited third trophy?


Co-staring Jim Broadbent as Thatcher's doting husband, The Iron Lady hits theaters December 16th.  Picture of Meryl and Broadbent below.

[Thanks to Awards Daily for breaking the news]

Emmy Predictions - Comedy Series

I'm saving the best for last.  I actually watch most of these shows on a regular basis, and the others I've seen a few episodes here and there.  That, combined with "what's out there," is what I'm using to predict these races.  Also, I won't be predicting any of the directing, writing, or movie/miniseries categories.  See my Drama predictions here.

The real nominations come out on July 14th.  So, here we go!  All my predictions can be seen over on GoldDerby.com, where you can conveniently make your own.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - COMEDY SERIES

• 1

  Chris Colfer  -Glee

• 2

  Ty Burrell  -Modern Family

• 3

  Jesse Tyler Ferguson  -Modern Family

• 4

  Eric Stonestreet  -Modern Family

• 5

  Neil Patrick Harris  -How I Met Your Mother

• 6

  Nick Offerman  -Parks and Recreation

(Confession: this is my favorite category, if only for my Modern Family men, and that it's so fun and hard to predict.  So many theories abound!  Are they tired of NPH yet?  Will 2, 3, 1, or all 4 Modern Family men make it in?  What about Cryer; are they jumping ship entirely on Two and a Half Men?  Any chance for a much-loved newbie to make a splash?  Well I think we can all agree that Glee's stalwart standout Colfer is going to be nominated, and probably win this race.  As far as the Modern Family men go, I'm very confident in saying Burrell and Ferguson are safe; both have the industry support and the episodes, and specifically are standout comedy performances on their shows.  I'm wary of predicting Stonestreet again, since I'm conflicted over O'Neill presence in this race.  However, I'm sure Harris will be back for another fruitless nomination for How I Met Your Mother.  And with new blood and new love for I'm predicting for Parks and Recreation, I think Offerman is going to squeak in.  And between Stonestreet's obvious comedy and O'Neill's dry, I think they'll be forced to snub the veteran and nominate Fitzbo.)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - COMEDY SERIES

• 1

  Jane Lynch  -Glee

• 2

  Sofia Vergara  -Modern Family

• 3

  Julie Bowen  -Modern Family

• 4

  Jane Krakowski  -30 Rock

• 5

  Betty White  -Hot in Cleveland

• 6

  Kristen Wiig  -Saturday Night Live

(Knowing that Betty White is all but a lock for a nomination is almost enough for me to stop caring about this race.  But she's assured a nod, if not a win.  Emmy host and last year's victor, Lynch, is very likely to return not only to the show but to the winner's circle.  Two people who threaten Lynch's crown is the duo of Modern Family ladies, Vergara and Bowen, either of whom could win too.  Krakowski has manages to make it in this race recently, and I don't see cause for not predicting her.  Finally, though something is telling me to go with Amy Ryan in The Office, I'm predicting for a Bridesmaids bump and the third consecutive nomination for SNL's Wiig.)

BEST ACTOR - COMEDY SERIES

• 1

  Steve Carell  -The Office

• 2

  Alec Baldwin  -30 Rock

• 3

  Jim Parsons  -The Big Bang Theory

• 4

  Joel McHale  -Community

• 5

  Rob Lowe  -Parks and Recreation

• 6

  Danny McBride  -Eastbound & Down

(This race is uncharacteristically wide open, in terms of the nominations that is.  I think everyone knows who the winner is favored to be, if his name isn't already engraved on the trophy.  Anyway, five-time nominee Carell should be nominated for his final season on one of TV's most popular shows.  Past winners Baldwin and Parsons should be invited back, and with threats to win.  The last three spots are really a mystery, given there's no Monk or Larry David to take up spots.  Community had a strong season this year, and many were surprised when McHale was snubbed last year, so I expect him to safely make it in this round.  Emmy races are often about star power (see: Best Actress Comedy Series), and fewer stars on TV comedies are more famous than Rob Lowe, who, however, has had quite a tepid relationship with Emmy.  Alas, his questionable category placement may ultimately harm his chances, but I think his name, acting, and popularity of the show will be enough to push him in.  Finally, the voting is done with #1 popular rankings, which allow little-watched but heavily-loved show to make it in; McBride is such an actor on such a show.  If not him, then I'm thinking Louis CK for Louis.  A shame for Ed O'Neill, who could have easily made it in this weak race.)

BEST ACTRESS- COMEDY SERIES

• 1

  Laura Linney  -The Big C

• 2

  Edie Falco  -Nurse Jackie

• 3

  Amy Poehler  -Parks and Recreation

• 4

  Tina Fey  -30 Rock

• 5

  Lea Michele  -Glee

• 6

  Courteney Cox  -Cougar Town

(Linney, the presumed winner, is expected to make it in, the third in Showtime's Women in Dramatic Comedies series.  Last year's winner, Falco, I expect to return, as with last year's nominees Fey, Michele, and Peohler.  The 6th nominee from last year, Aussie Toni Collette I'm predicting to get the snub, in favor of Friends alum Cox.  Out of the Linney, Falco, Fey, and Peohler, I think we'll have a winner.  I won't say who I'm putting my money on, but I am saying that it's not Linney, who actually has never lost an Emmy race.)

BEST COMEDY SERIES

• 1

  Modern Family

• 2

  30 Rock

• 3

  The Office

• 4

  Glee

• 5

  Parks and Recreation

• 6

  The Big Bang Theory

(I think last year's winner easily repeats this year, but we're not talking winners just yet.  Modern Family, 30 Rock, and The Office are safe bets for traditional comedies, and everyone's favorite non-comedy Glee is sure to return as well.  I'm getting a feeling neither of Showtime's comedy submissions are getting in this year, and a surprising network comedy coup will take place.  You parents' favorite comedy show, The Big Band Theory, I think makes it in on popularity, unlike last year.  Finally, I'm one of the few fans of Parks and Recreation that thinks it has a real chance to make a presence at the Emmys; the show is in the zeitgeist, Ron Swanson is everywhere online, Rob Lowe was a hit, and EW named it the smartest show on TV.  I think it's the best comedy on television, and I don't see a reason why, if anyone watches a single episode of it, it won't get in.)