UPDATED September 1 Oscar predictions

It's about that time again.  In the weeks since my initial, first of the year predictions, not all that much has changed but a few hits and misses have been identified.  In particular, Tate Taylor's racial drama The Help was helped by decent reviews and a surprisingly stellar box office.  Given the Academy's "feel good" nature of late, this is the first certified Best Picture nominee of the year, and with it the one-two performances of Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer (however, the category whereabouts of Miss Davis has yet to be identified, but many are speculating Lead, though this type of role typically lands a win in Supporting).

Others interesting notes, Roman Polanski's Carnage, George Clooney's political drama The Ides of March, and David Cronenberg's S&M-laced A Dangerous Method have made an interesting splash at the Venice Film Festival, but none have registered quite the level of enthusiasm granted towards Black Swan last year.  In the meantime, I've personally begun to turn more speculative towards Clint Eastwood's too-good-to-be-true J. Edgar.  Clint hasn't been hitting on all cylinders since he made a surprise splash into the 2006 Best Picture race with Letters from Iwo Jima.  That is one I'll wait for the payoff to predict.  Techs coming soon.

BEST PICTURE

The Artist

*The Descendants

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help

The Ides of March
*J. Edgar

Midnight in Paris

*My Week with Marilyn

Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy
War Horse
(* indicates those I'm predicting only in an overflow capacity)

BEST DIRECTOR

Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
David Cronenberg, A Dangerous Method

Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris

Steven Spielberg, War Horse
(Eastwood out, Allen in)

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

George Clooney, The Descendants

Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar

Jean DuJardin, The Artist

Michael Fassbender, A Dangerous Method

Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
(Unchanged)

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Viola Davis, The Help

Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene

Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
(Felicity Jones out, David in)

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn

Albert Brooks, Drive

Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method

Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Christoph Waltz, Carnage
(Seymour Hoffman out, Waltz in)

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Zoe Caldwell, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
Octavia Spencer, The Help

Marisa Tomei, The Ides of March

Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
(Tomei out, Spencer in; Redgrave new projected winner)