Friday, September 2, 2011

UPDATED September 1 Oscar predictions

It's about that time again.  In the weeks since my initial, first of the year predictions, not all that much has changed but a few hits and misses have been identified.  In particular, Tate Taylor's racial drama The Help was helped by decent reviews and a surprisingly stellar box office.  Given the Academy's "feel good" nature of late, this is the first certified Best Picture nominee of the year, and with it the one-two performances of Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer (however, the category whereabouts of Miss Davis has yet to be identified, but many are speculating Lead, though this type of role typically lands a win in Supporting).

Others interesting notes, Roman Polanski's Carnage, George Clooney's political drama The Ides of March, and David Cronenberg's S&M-laced A Dangerous Method have made an interesting splash at the Venice Film Festival, but none have registered quite the level of enthusiasm granted towards Black Swan last year.  In the meantime, I've personally begun to turn more speculative towards Clint Eastwood's too-good-to-be-true J. Edgar.  Clint hasn't been hitting on all cylinders since he made a surprise splash into the 2006 Best Picture race with Letters from Iwo Jima.  That is one I'll wait for the payoff to predict.  Techs coming soon.


BEST PICTURE
The Artist
*The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
The Ides of March
*J. Edgar
Midnight in Paris
*My Week with Marilyn
Tinker, Tailor, Solider, Spy
War Horse
(* indicates those I'm predicting only in an overflow capacity)

BEST DIRECTOR
Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
David Cronenberg, A Dangerous Method
Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Steven Spielberg, War Horse
(Eastwood out, Allen in)

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
George Clooney, The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Jean DuJardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, A Dangerous Method
Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
(Unchanged)

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
(Felicity Jones out, David in)

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Christoph Waltz, Carnage
(Seymour Hoffman out, Waltz in)

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Zoe Caldwell, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Marisa Tomei, The Ides of March
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
(Tomei out, Spencer in; Redgrave new projected winner)

3 comments:

  1. Great predictions, but Terrance Malick has to score an Oscar nod for "The Tree of Life". While I do think the film was incredibly overhyped, Malick's direction was absolutely phenomenal. Malick is also a prestigious director who releases a film rarely, so the academy might just give him a nod simply because he's well... Malick.

    Other than that, really good predictions!

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  2. I don't think "The Tree of Life" itself was overhyped, but I think what is overhyped is Malick's place in the scheme of things. He's released, what, 5 films in his career. And for only one of them has he himself received any nomination, so saying he'll get a nomination because he's "Malick" really isn't something that has a basis behind it. Yes, among film fans he's a very well-regarded director, but the Academy is a different story.

    In the end, I don't think the AMPAS will respond to the film the way many film fans have. Why? it's esoteric and not very easy to watch. The Academy likes film that are the exact opposite of that, and though the Directing branch does the nominating for Director, this is still the branch that has only nominated this guy once, in 1998 for a World War II film in a year when World War II films were all the rage.

    I just don't see it. Too many new and shiney films coming out this fall and winter to compete with a challenging film from May.

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  3. I would like to see your favorite holiday pics for the season!

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