Friday, July 1, 2011

Emmy Predictions - Drama Series

I'm saving the Comedy Series for last (or part 2) because since I actually tune in to the occasional TV scripted comedy show, I can relate to them better and assemble a small sense of excitement.  Also, I won't be predicting any of the directing, writing, or movie/miniseries categories.

The real nominations come out on July 14th.  So, here we go!  All my predictions can be seen over on, where you can conveniently make your own.


(There are a lot of possibilities for this category.  Broadwalk Empire has the possibility for a ton of slots, but given that wide field from the show and the fact it hasn't aired in forever, I think ultimately will hurt the show's supporting men.  Slattery and Cumming seem decent locks at this point, with last year's presumed second-place man and Emmy favorite Braugher close behind.  Three of last year's nominees aren't eligible this year, so I'm expecting some fanboy love to shine through for Fringe's Noble and True Blood's scenery-munching O'Hare.  Expect a slew of nomination for Justified, including The Shield alum Goggins).


(Emmy voters rarely like to change anything, unless it's season 5 or 6 of something.  That being said, I expect three of last year's nominees (Mad Men's Hendricks, The Good Wife's Baranski, and the winner Punjabi) to easily return.  All the ado over Justified is mostly focused on character-actor-savant Martindale, whom I expect to win and therefore be nominated.  In Treatment has been good to nominees in the past, and it may be hard to pass up a star like Winger on a ballot, though few saw the third season of this now-cancelled show.  And finally, if I expect anyone aside from Steve Buscemi to be nominated for Broadwalk Empire, it's Emmy-champ Macdonald.)


(This category has gone to Bryan Cranston for Breaking Bad for the last three years, and luckily for these six men, AMC didn't air his show in the qualification window.  That being said, perennial nominee and also-ran Hamm should make a return, as should Hall and Laurie, all of whom have too often watched other walk away with an Emmy.  Of the last three slots, I expect one to go to newbie Buscemi, since Emmy voters love new series and movie stars.  During the nomination process, you have to be loved by at least a small voting body to be nominated, a qualification which Olyphant has, so I expect him to be a nominee.  Finally, Macy should fill out the final slot if anything because of his recognizable name.)


(For someone who doesn't watch these shows, this is an incredible boring category.  Marguilies and Sedgwick should be returning and contending for the crown alongside Mad Men standout Moss, who according to many, has a killer submission possibility this year with "The Suitcase."  Hargitay has been nominated just about every season since she joined the show, and has won in the past; her upcoming exit from the series should help her be spotlighted here.  With a Golden Globe win earlier this year, Sagel is a tempting choice on the ballot, and her show Sons of Anarchy has become vastly more popular this year.  Combined with her TV vet status, I expect to her to be nominated, because a small group love her work.  Finally, I'm predicting True Blood's Paquin to make it in the last slot, if only because I have a gut feeling about it.)


(Well, this isn't the most predictable lineup.  I'm not buying The Killing talk whatsoever, but I could be totally incorrect on that front, and I'm feeling Dexter will be a disappointment this year after John Lithgow ran the table last season.  So, with those two out of the equation in my mind, that leaves the four frontrunners for the win, Mad Men, The Good Wife, Broadwalk Empire, and Game of Thrones.  Some aren't thinking Thrones has what it takes, but the buzz is there and you can feel it.  As aforementioned with Justified, the small, passionate fanbase will get it in.  True Blood made it last year, and I don't see why to bet against it this year.)

There they are: place your bets now.  So what do you think? Are my predictions totally crazy?


  1. Not to be nit-picky, but FOUR of last year's supporting actors are ineligible (Aaron Paul, Martin Short, Michael Emerson and Terry O'Quinn). I would, without question, predict SOMEONE from Boardwalk Empire before any of your bottom 3. I also predict that either Chris Noth or Josh Charles will get in for The Good Wife.

    I think you're giving True Blood way too much weight in the acting categories. It's never made a splash before... so why now? Ellen Burstyn was nominated for a 20 second performance at the Emmys, so a name like Kathy Bates will resonate much more strongly than Anna Paquin (even though she DOES have an Oscar, but I think you see what I'm getting at).

  2. I've been debating whether I think Noth or O'Hare will get in for a while...I settled on O'Hare because he stands out more, but Noth's show is vastly more popular AND he's a huge tv may have swayed me (and Short being nominated last year totally slipped my mind).

    And as for Paquin, she's in a show people talk about and are still talking about; a hit. And I just have a feeling it'll pickup some traction this year, getting her in over Bates and her little-watched dramedy. Do you think Irons gets in Drama Actor via name recognition?

  3. I'm actually predicting Irons due to a) snobby British factor and b) name recognition. I think some combination of him, Olyphant and Macy will get in, and my money is on the first two.

    People have been talking about True Blood for 3 years now and it's never made a splash in the acting categories. Hit or not, the pools for drama are too deep for them to suddenly throw them some recognition now.

  4. Everyone's really got me questioning my True Blood predictions now! They suddenly threw it a bone last year, why would they change their minds now? At least a series nomination, I think. Maybe just wishful thinking for O'Hare on my part.

    I was between Macy and Irons for my last part, and I opted for Macy, since I've at least heard one person mention his show, whereas I don't know anyone who watches Irons'. Not that that ever matters though.