Emmy Predictions - Drama Series

I'm saving the Comedy Series for last (or part 2) because since I actually tune in to the occasional TV scripted comedy show, I can relate to them better and assemble a small sense of excitement.  Also, I won't be predicting any of the directing, writing, or movie/miniseries categories.

The real nominations come out on July 14th.  So, here we go!  All my predictions can be seen over on GoldDerby.com, where you can conveniently make your own.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - DRAMA SERIES

• 1

  John Slattery  -Mad Men

• 2

  Alan Cumming  -The Good Wife

• 3

  Andre Braugher  -Men of a Certain Age

• 4

  Walton Goggins  -Justified

• 5

  Denis O'Hare  -True Blood

• 6

  John Noble  -Fringe

(There are a lot of possibilities for this category.  Broadwalk Empire has the possibility for a ton of slots, but given that wide field from the show and the fact it hasn't aired in forever, I think ultimately will hurt the show's supporting men.  Slattery and Cumming seem decent locks at this point, with last year's presumed second-place man and Emmy favorite Braugher close behind.  Three of last year's nominees aren't eligible this year, so I'm expecting some fanboy love to shine through for Fringe's Noble and True Blood's scenery-munching O'Hare.  Expect a slew of nomination for Justified, including The Shield alum Goggins).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - DRAMA SERIES

• 1

  Margo Martindale  -Justified

• 2

  Christina Hendricks  -Mad Men

• 3

  Archie Panjabi  -The Good Wife

• 4

  Debra Winger  -In Treatment

• 5

  Christine Baranski  -The Good Wife

• 6

  Kelly Macdonald  -Boardwalk Empire

(Emmy voters rarely like to change anything, unless it's season 5 or 6 of something.  That being said, I expect three of last year's nominees (Mad Men's Hendricks, The Good Wife's Baranski, and the winner Punjabi) to easily return.  All the ado over Justified is mostly focused on character-actor-savant Martindale, whom I expect to win and therefore be nominated.  In Treatment has been good to nominees in the past, and it may be hard to pass up a star like Winger on a ballot, though few saw the third season of this now-cancelled show.  And finally, if I expect anyone aside from Steve Buscemi to be nominated for Broadwalk Empire, it's Emmy-champ Macdonald.)


BEST ACTOR - DRAMA SERIES

• • 1

    Jon Hamm  -Mad Men

  • 2

    Steve Buscemi  -Boardwalk Empire

  • 3

    Michael C. Hall  -Dexter

  • 4

    Timothy Olyphant  -Justified

  • 5

    Hugh Laurie  -House

  • 6

    William H. Macy  -Shameless

(This category has gone to Bryan Cranston for Breaking Bad for the last three years, and luckily for these six men, AMC didn't air his show in the qualification window.  That being said, perennial nominee and also-ran Hamm should make a return, as should Hall and Laurie, all of whom have too often watched other walk away with an Emmy.  Of the last three slots, I expect one to go to newbie Buscemi, since Emmy voters love new series and movie stars.  During the nomination process, you have to be loved by at least a small voting body to be nominated, a qualification which Olyphant has, so I expect him to be a nominee.  Finally, Macy should fill out the final slot if anything because of his recognizable name.)

BEST ACTRESS - DRAMA SERIES

• 1

  Elisabeth Moss  -Mad Men

• 2

  Kyra Sedgwick  -The Closer

• 3

  Julianna Margulies  -The Good Wife

• 4

  Katey Sagal  -Sons of Anarchy

• 5

  Mariska Hargitay  -Law & Order: SVU

• 6

  Anna Paquin  -True Blood

(For someone who doesn't watch these shows, this is an incredible boring category.  Marguilies and Sedgwick should be returning and contending for the crown alongside Mad Men standout Moss, who according to many, has a killer submission possibility this year with "The Suitcase."  Hargitay has been nominated just about every season since she joined the show, and has won in the past; her upcoming exit from the series should help her be spotlighted here.  With a Golden Globe win earlier this year, Sagel is a tempting choice on the ballot, and her show Sons of Anarchy has become vastly more popular this year.  Combined with her TV vet status, I expect to her to be nominated, because a small group love her work.  Finally, I'm predicting True Blood's Paquin to make it in the last slot, if only because I have a gut feeling about it.)

BEST DRAMA SERIES

• 1

  Mad Men

• 2

  The Good Wife

• 3

  Boardwalk Empire

• 4

  Game of Thrones

• 5

  True Blood

• 6

  Justified

(Well, this isn't the most predictable lineup.  I'm not buying The Killing talk whatsoever, but I could be totally incorrect on that front, and I'm feeling Dexter will be a disappointment this year after John Lithgow ran the table last season.  So, with those two out of the equation in my mind, that leaves the four frontrunners for the win, Mad Men, The Good Wife, Broadwalk Empire, and Game of Thrones.  Some aren't thinking Thrones has what it takes, but the buzz is there and you can feel it.  As aforementioned with Justified, the small, passionate fanbase will get it in.  True Blood made it last year, and I don't see why to bet against it this year.)

There they are: place your bets now.  So what do you think? Are my predictions totally crazy?