2011 Tony Predictions

I'm sorry, what?  This is Sam Watches Movies, not Sam Doesn't Watch Plays But Writes About Them.  But either way, I'm here to predict the Tony Awards for this upcoming Sunday evening.  Granted, while you read, I have not seen any of the shows and only heard the soundtrack to about half the musicals.  But you want to know the funny thing about predicting entertainment awards?  Seeing the performances doesn't even matter.

Overall this is a great year for Broadway.  A strong, and much-needed rebound after the horrid slate of nominees and qualifying shows that opened on the Great White Way.  So many original shows that's aren't jutebox musicals :-)

Here we go.  Comments on the ones which need commentary.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play

Brian Bedford, The Importance of Being Earnest
Bobby Cannavale, The Motherf**ker with the Hat
Joe Mantello, The Normal Heart
Al Pacino, The Merchant of Venice
Mark Rylance, Jerusalem ***

(My gut is telling me two-time Directing winner Mantello, but I'm hearing that Rylance is remarkable.  In the end, I think how many awards the AIDS drama takes home will be contingent on whether the love it or respect it.  Mantello is ridiculously close.)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play

Nina Arianda, Born Yesterday

Frances McDormand, Good People ***

Lily Rabe, The Merchant of Venice

Vanessa Redgrave, Driving Miss Daisy

Hannah Yelland, Brief Encounter

(My gut, again, is telling me newcomer Arianda is going to win for the Oscar-winning role of Billy Holiday, but I'm not seeing it actually happening.  McDormand is an Oscar champ, she's a working actress that people like, and the star of what is arguably the #2 in the Best Play race.  They may want to throw her a bone here.  Born Yesterday isn't even nominated in Best Revival.)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Norbert Leo Butz, Catch Me If You Can
Josh Gad, The Book of Mormon ***
Joshua Henry, The Scottsboro Boys
Andrew Rannells, The Book of Mormon
Tony Sheldon, Priscilla Queen of the Desert

(Bar none, hands down this is hardest race to predict.  When Harry Potter Daniel Radcliffe was snubbed, this race became a horse race.  All but Henry have a chance.  Some are staying away from the Mormon men because of a vote-splitting theory, and are claiming it's down to past-winner (and from a show with two Best Actor nominees) Butz and Aussie newcomer Sheldon.  Both, however, are in shows that proved to have a lukewarm reception at the Tonys.  Butz's show is a Best Musical nominee, but curiously without a Book, Director, or Score representation.  Sheldon is in a flashy part, but he and the Costumes are the show's only nominations (in addition, there might be a Didn't We Do This Last Year sentiment with rewarding another drag portrayal.  I'm betting on Gad here, with his scene-stealing just barely besting Rannells' vocal chops.)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Sutton Foster, Anything Goes ***
Beth Leavel, Baby It's You!
Patina Miller, Sister Act
Donna Murphy, The People in the Picture

(Some people say Miller, but I'm thinking Foster has it here.  Classic role, good reviews, dancing to drive you wild, and to boot she's one of the most consistent actors on Broadway.  She's due for a second one, I'd imagine.)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
Mackenzie Crook, Jerusalem
Billy Crudup, Arcadia
John Benjamin Hickey, The Normal Heart ***
Arian Moayed, Bengal Tiger at the Baghdad Zoo
Yul Vázquez, The Motherf**ker with the Hat

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play

Ellen Barkin, The Normal Heart ***

Edie Falco, The House of Blue Leaves

Judith Light, Lombardi

Joanna Lumley, La Bête

Elizabeth Rodriguez, The Motherf**ker with the Hat

(Here is where I--and most pundits--think The Normal Heart will show up with a vengeance. Hickey is the last remaining principle actor for the iconic 1998 revival of Cabaret to be Tony-less (aside from the show's half-Oscar-winning directing duo Sam Mendes and Rob Marshall).  Barkin got glowing reviews, and with Falco's show getting mostly and backhandedly panned, I think that'll be enough to make Barkin a Tony winner.)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
Colman Domingo, The Scottsboro Boys
Adam Godley, Anything Goes
John Larroquette, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying ***
Forrest McClendon, The Scottsboro Boys
Rory O'Malley, The Book of Mormon

(The most surprising thing here on nomination morning were the snubs of two Broadway vets returning to the stage.  John Collum for The Scottsboro Boys and Joel Grey for Anything Goes.  With both of those men gone, the race is down to an epic Emmy champ and a newcomer from the hottest show in years.  In the end, I'm wondering if Larroquette's lackluster singing prowess and technically-critical reviews will hamper his chances, giving way for O'Malley to ride the Mormon wagon to the winner's circle.  I just don't know.  Currently, I'm predicting Larroquette.)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Laura Benanti, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown
Tammy Blanchard, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Victoria Clark, Sister Act
Nikki M. James, The Book of Mormon ***
Patti LuPone, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown

(Benanti won the Drama Desk and seems to be the only actress on Broadway who's okay flaunting around her sexuality no matter where she goes.  Finally becoming a Tony-winner a mere three years ago, I don't see her winning this time.  Drama Desk voters are not Tony voters; Tony voters vote for things that they could have seen in May and April, when they're catching up on shows that they didn't bother to see the other 11 months of the year.  Benanti's show closed forever ago.  Watch out for the female standout James to accept the Tony Sunday night.)

Best Book of a Musical

Bloody Bloody Andrew Jackson

The Book of Mormon ***

The Scottsboro Boys

Sister Act

Best Original Score

The Book of Mormon ***

The Scottsboro Boys

Sister Act

Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown

(Again, these are pretty much a slam dunk.  Book and Score often go together and when the Best Musical frontrunner is represented in both, it tends to have a good shot.  I'm betting the South Park boys best the final musical collaboration between theatre legends Kander and Ebb.)

Best Direction of a Play
Marianne Elliott and Tom Morris, War Horse
Joel Grey & George C. Wolfe, The Normal Heart ***
Anna D. Shapiro, The Motherf**ker with the Hat
Daniel Sullivan, The Merchant of Venice

(Nearly Everyone is predicting Elliot and Morris to win for their puppet mastery in War Horse, but I'm betting the voters go for visceral emotional effect over dazzling visual harmony.  Plus Grey and Wolfe are heavy-hitters in the community.  Grey, at over 80 did 8 shows a week and directed a show.  Pretty impressive for someone who hasn't won a Tony since the Johnson administration.)

Best Direction of a Musical
Rob Ashford, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Kathleen Marshall, Anything Goes
Casey Nicholaw and Trey Parker, The Book of Mormon ***
Susan Stroman, The Scottsboro Boys

(Lock. Srsly).

Best Choreography
Rob Ashford, How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying
Kathleen Marshall, Anything Goes ***
Casey Nicholaw, The Book of Mormon
Susan Stroman, The Scottsboro Boys

(All I read about Anything Goes was the stirring tap dance numbers.  I reckon Marshall has it.  Interestingly enough, though, all four of these Choreographers are not only the directors of their shows this year, but have all worked with Sutton Foster in the past.  Ashford on Thoroughly Modern Millie, Marshall on Anything Goes, Nicholaw on The Drowsy Chaperone, and Stroman on Young Frankenstein. You welcome for that Sunday night Look How Smart I Am tidbit when the category is announced.)

Best Musical

The Book of Mormon ***

Catch Me If You Can

The Scottsboro Boys

Sister Act

Best Play

Good People

Jerusalem

The Motherfucker with the Hat

War Horse***

(As with the Best Musical race, the Best Play race is totally devoid of drama.  Both War Horse and Book of Mormon are locks to win the final two awards of the evening.)

Best Revival of a Play

Arcadia

The Importance of Being Earnest

The Merchant of Venice

The Normal Heart ***

Best Revival of a Musical

Anything Goes ***

How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying

(Oddly, much like the Best Play and Best Musical races, these Revival races are just as secure.  Nothing is beating The Normal Heart or Anything Goes.)

And that's it.  Tell your friends.  This is 100% right, trust me.